We already know that if Spain go on to win Euro 2012 they’ll be the first international team to win a hat-trick of consecutive major titles and up until a fortnight ago, they were being recognised as one of the greatest national football productions of all time.
Not only were they winning but they were winning with style, a redefined style, one which was envied and appreciated in equal measure. Spain had re-invented the wheel.
Their teasing technical approach was art nouveau. It was Sevruga caviar rather than egg and chips, it was the Coen brothers rather than the Kardashian sisters. But now, according to some, it’s boring.
A 90-minute non-event against France did little to appease the microwave meal football fan who demands thrills, spills and bellyaches for a match to be constituted as entertaining.
And few are expecting Wednesday’s semi-final against Portugal to be anything other than constant, oppressive Spanish possession until they get their wicked way.
In their last 14 European Championship and World Cup tournament ties, the Spaniards have conceded just three goals, but have only scored 20 themselves.
Euro 2012 semi-final: Spain v Portugal – see all 329 markets!
Bwin have La Roja down at a tiny 3/50 to have more possession than Paulo Bento’s boys and it’s a fractional 12/25 that there are under 2.5 goals in the entire game. In bare statistics, Spain’s games simply do not contain many goals. Usually they don’t need to.
In their last 14 European Championship and World Cup tournament ties, the Spaniards have conceded just three goals, but have only scored 20 themselves.
When you compare that to the amount of passes they rack up and the amount of time they have on the ball the strike rate is low – too low, some argue – but death by a thousand cuts is their modus operandi. And it works.
That Spain have barely needed to get out of second gear to arrive in an international semi-final is a testament to their excellence and efficiency, and bwin’s 3Way football betting market has them as 22/25 favourites to duly see off Portugal and take their place in yet another final.
The Portuguese themselves have crept up on the rails after having to beat the dismal Dutch to secure progression.
But even with Cristiano Ronaldo carrying the baton for an otherwise ordinary side, I personally shall not be indulging in bwin’s 3Way price of 13/4 for a Portugal win.
Given the relatively tight margins of Spanish victories, the 12/5 draw could be worth exploring – especially given that in their last eight knock-out games, Spain have scored just ten goals, albeit only conceding one.
If you’re leaning towards a draw, take into consideration Spain to win in extra-time at 9/1 or Spain to nick it in the 90 minutes after a half-time draw at 15/4.
However, I’ll be contemptuously following familiarity and going for another narrow Spanish win.
Their monopolisation of the ball and excellent shut-out record in these stages, coupled with Portugal’s limitations – Ronaldo apart – should nullify the threat of a Portuguese strike.
And with enough options to eventually pick themselves a goal, I’m going for 2-0 Spain at a massive 25/4 – the same scoreline I tipped correctly when previewing their quarter-final against Les Bleus.
Punters who register with bwin are entitled to a free £20 bet and putting that on 2-0 Spain will bring you in £125 should it come off.
Elsewhere, if you reckon it will be tighter than that, 1-0 Spain is 17/4, but if you fancy a Portugal goal, 2-1 Spain is 33/4 or a Spanish win with over 2.5 goals in the game is 11/4.
Recommended bet: Spain to win 2-0 @ 25/4
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